It’s all come down to this. Ninety-four years of Oscar history have been digested and cross-examined to help yield the critical answer: Which films and performances will win Academy Awards on March 27?
By the sheer scope of its nomination tally, Netflix is the closest it’s ever been to taking home the statuette for the Academy’s most prestigious prize. Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” has won the most critics’ awards for best picture, and the film has walked away with the top honor at the BAFTA and DGA ceremonies, which have Oscar-voter crossover. However, in what feels like an even divide, some Academy members told Variety they were ranking it at No. 1 on their preferential ballot, while others were putting it toward the bottom of that category.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Predictions Hub
Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” sat as the presumptive front-runner for months following its debut at the Telluride Film Festival. But after taking home a single BAFTA for outstanding British film, it’s operating on a wing and a prayer to win the ultimate Oscar honor. Its best hope could lie in the original screenplay category, or it might go the route of “Spotlight” (2015) and win two major prizes, including picture.
That brings us to Sian Heder’s “CODA,” the underdog that has captured the hearts of industry voters. After winning the Screen Actors Guild Award for cast ensemble and the PGA Award, it stands a decent chance of taking all three of its nominated categories, including best picture.
Other predicted outcomes include Will Smith becoming the fifth Black actor to be named best actor, in his case for “King Richard.” Meantime, Jessica Chastain could become the second woman to win best actress for a film that she also produced — “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” The first to do so was Frances McDormand, last year’s honoree for “Nomadland.” That is unless my prediction for Penelope Cruz winning comes to fruition for “Parallel Mothers.”
Troy Kotsur looks to become the second deaf performer to win an acting Oscar for “CODA,” following his co-star Marlee Matlin’s victory for “Children of a Lesser God” (1986). Ariana DeBose could become the second Latina to win an acting award, after her co-star Rita Moreno, for “West Side Story.”
“Encanto” could pull off a shocker in original song to go along with its animated feature win. Songwriter Lin-Manuel Miranda would become the 17th EGOT recipient and the third youngest.
“Dune” is projected to be the night’s biggest winner with five, but that number could move up or down depending on the love that comes in for “Cruella” in costume design and “King Richard” in editing.
International feature could have an upset with “The Worst Person in the World” taking the award for Norway, despite “Drive My Car” from Japan being nominated for picture, director and adapted screenplay.
The keys to documentary feature are in the hands of either Questlove for “Summer of Soul” or Jonas Poher Rasmussen for “Flee,” which made history with noms in animated, doc and international feature. Surprise DGA winner Stanley Nelson might even sneak in with “Attica.”
Following are the final predictions.
The individual category predictions with the full rankings are on the individual pages.
Best Picture
Will win: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
Could win: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas
Should win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappie
Should have been here: “C’mon C’mon” (A24) – Chelsea Barnard, Lila Yacoub, Andrea Longacre-White
Best Director
Will win: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Could win: Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Should win: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Should have been here: Mike Mills, “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
Best Actor
Will win: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
Could win: Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix)
Should win: Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix)
Should have been here: Simon Rex, “Red Rocket” (A24)
Best Actress
Will win: Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Could win: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
Should win: Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
Should have been here: Tessa Thompson, “Passing” (Netflix)
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
Could win: Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
Should win: Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Should have been here: Vincent Lindon, “Titane” (Neon)
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Could win: Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
Should win: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Should have been here: Olga Merediz, “In the Heights” (Warner Bros)
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Branagh
Could win: “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Branagh
Should have been here: “C’mon C’mon” (A24) – Mike Mills
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Sian Heder
Could win: “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix) – Maggie Gyllenhaal
Should win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Jane Campion
Should have been here: “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix) – Steven Levenson
Best Animated Feature
Will win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
Could win: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” (Netflix) – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
Should win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
Should have been here: “Ron’s Gone Wrong” (20th Century Studios) – Sarah Smith, Jean-Philippe Vine
Best Production Design
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Patrice Vermette (production design), Zsuzsanna Sipos (set decoration)
Could win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Grant Major (production design), Amber Richards (set decoration)
Should win: “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures) – Tamara Deverell (production design), Shane Vieau (set decoration)
Should have been here: “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios) – Jon Hutman (production design), Ellen Brill (set decoration)
Best Cinematography
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Greig Fraser
Could win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Ari Wegner
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Greig Fraser
Should have been here: “In the Heights” (Warner Bros) – Alice Brooks
Best Costume Design
Will win: “Cruella” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jenny Beavan
Could win: “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios) – Paul Tazewell
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan
Should have been here: “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix) – Antoinette Messam
Best Film Editing
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Joe Walker
Could win: “King Richard” (Warner Bros) – Pamela Martin
Should win: “King Richard” (Warner Bros) – Pamela Martin
Should have been here: “The Guilty” (Netflix) – Jason Ballantine
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures) – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
Could win: “Coming 2 America” (Amazon Studios) – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr
Should have been here: “Last Night in Soho” (Focus Features) – Lizzie Yianni Georgiou
Best Sound
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
Could win: “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios) – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
Should have been here: “The Last Duel” (20th Century Studios) – Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Daniel Birch, Stéphanie Bucher
Best Visual Effects
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Could win: “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Sony Pictures) – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Should have been here: “Eternals”
Best Original Score
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Hans Zimmer
Could win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Germaine Franco
Should win: “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Alberto Iglesias
Should have been here: “Spencer” (Neon/Topic Studios) – Jonny Greenwood
Best Original Song
Will win: “Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Could win: “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Should win: “Be Alive” from “King Richard” (Warner Bros) – Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
Should have been here: “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: “Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures) – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
Could win: “Flee” (Neon) – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Should win: “Flee” (Neon) – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Should have been here: “The Rescue”
Best International Feature
Will win: “Drive My Car” (Japan)
Could win: “The Worst Person in the World” (Norway)
Should win: “Flee” (Norway)
Should have been here: “Titane” (France)
Best Animated Short
Will win: “Robin Robin” (Netflix) – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
Could win: “The Windshield Wiper” (The Animation Showcase) – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
Should win: “Robin Robin” (Netflix) – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
Best Documentary Short
Will win: “Audible” (Netflix) – Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean
Could win: “The Queen of Basketball” (The New York Times) – Ben Proudfoot
Should win: “Audible” (Netflix) – Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean
Best Live Action Short
Will win: “The Long Goodbye” (WePresent) – Aneil Karia, Riz Ahmed
Could win: “On My Mind” (The New Yorker) – Martin Strange-Hansen
Should win: “The Long Goodbye” (WePresent) – Aneil Karia, Riz Ahmed
Final Oscar Predictions 2022: Why ‘CODA’ Will Win Best Picture - Variety
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